Financial Model

Live cashflow model (read-only) · v6.1 · refreshed …. To edit deals, use 💰 Deals.

💰 Deals (editable) 📣 Win List
Cash now
—
Mercury Checking + Savings
+ AMEX line
$24.6K
$12K bank + $12.6K AMEX
Base case min (Wk 9)
—
2026-07-28, before 2nd Apple
Base case 16-wk close
—
2026-09-15
Monthly burn (fixed)
$12.4K
Contractors + SaaS + AI
Savings this week
−$5.0K/mo
SaaS cuts + part-time team
Breakeven (all scenarios)
By Aug
Above $12.4K/mo revenue
Trigger date
Jul 1
Re-evaluate contractor scale

Scenario comparison

🔴 Stress (Apple 50% of base)

Apple Wk6: $10K · Wk10: $18K

—
Min cash (Wk 9 trough)
— · Wk 16 close

Survival: Bridgeable by AMEX. Triggers contingency cuts (Melvin → $1.5K, Matthi → $1K).

🟡 Base ✅ (live in model)

Apple Wk6: $20K · Wk10: $30K

—
Min cash (Wk 9 trough)
— · Wk 16 close

Action: Hold current part-time rate. Re-eval on Jul 1.

🟢 Upside (Apple ~1.7x base)

Apple Wk6: $35K · Wk10: $50K

—
Min cash (Wk 5 trough)
— · Wk 16 close

Action: Scale Melvin + Matthi back to full time. Consider 2nd hire.

Re-evaluation triggers — check 2026-07-01

Pull App Store Connect "estimated payout" + actual trial-end conversion data.

Good 🟢
Apple Wk 6 ≥ $25K AND conversion > 5%
Scale back to full-time. Melvin $6,144/mo, Matthi $2,939/mo. Restart full AI scoring ($8K/mo).
Mid 🟡
Apple Wk 6 $15K–$25K, conversion 3–5%
Hold current part-time. Melvin $3,072, Matthi $1,500. Model holds as-is.
Poor 🔴
Apple Wk 6 < $15K OR conversion < 3%
Cut further. Melvin → $1,500/mo, Matthi → $1,000/mo. Pause AI staged run. Draw AMEX as needed.

Base case — 16-week cashflow

Apple payouts in green. Troughs in red. Pulled live from cashflow_projections.

Wk Week start Opening Revenue Costs Closing Notes
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Decisions still needed

  1. Communicate contractor cuts to Melvin + Matthi — when, by whom, framing as "30-day re-evaluation".
  2. Pre-authorize the 🔴 scenario cuts (Melvin → $1,500, Matthi → $1,000) or require a check-in first?
  3. AMEX draw policy — automatic at <$2K projected, or check-in first?
  4. Pipeline closure target — Hannah's $12K weighted pipeline: target 50% closed before Wk 5 (Jun 30)?
  5. Re-evaluation trigger date — confirm 2026-07-01 as the check-in.

Cuts shipped this week — $4,985/mo

Item Before After Saved
Melvin (part-time from Wk 1)$6,144/mo$3,072/mo−$3,072
Matthi (part-time)$2,939/mo$1,500/mo−$1,439
Klaviyo (cancelled)$109/mo$0−$109
ManyChat (−30%)$245/mo$172/mo−$74
Google Workspace (−⅓)$210/mo$140/mo−$70
ClickUp (cancelled)$65/mo$0−$65
Shopify (−$59)$158/mo$99/mo−$59
Higgsfield (cancelled)$49/mo$0−$49
Tally.so (cancelled)$29/mo$0−$29
Death to Stock (cancelled)$19/mo$0−$19
Terra API (already cancelled)$499/mo$0−$499 (pre-existing)
Total recurring savings−$4,985/mo

Source of truth: scripts/baseline-os/finance_config.json (v6.1). Re-run python scripts/baseline-os/refresh_financials.py after material changes. Full doc: outputs/financial-model-2026-06-04.md.